Musk predicts manual driving will become a niche pastime by the mid-2030s at the latest

Elon Musk has outlined an ambitious timeline for the widespread rollout of Tesla's fully autonomous vehicles, projecting that self-driving cars will be operating at scale across the United States before the end of 2026.

The announcement

The Tesla chief executive predicted during a virtual address at the Smart Mobility Summit on Monday, appearing via video link to set out a timeline that stands in stark contrast to the more cautious forecasts typically offered by the traditional automotive industry.

Texas rollout already underway

A key distinction between Tesla's approach and that of other autonomous vehicle developers is the company's decision to deploy driverless cars without any human operators on board — not even for remote monitoring purposes.

Tesla has already begun rolling out fully driverless vehicles across three major cities in Texas, a move that reflects the company's confidence that its self-driving technology is sufficiently mature to operate safely on public roads without human backup.

A decade of transformation

Musk also offered a sweeping vision of how transportation in the United States will look within the next ten years. He predicted that artificial intelligence will account for approximately 90% of all distance travelled in the country, fundamentally reshaping how people move.

Taking his forecast even further, Musk suggested that manual driving would be relegated to a niche activity by the mid-2030s. "It'll be quite a niche thing in 10 years to actually be driving your own car," he stated.

A bold but contested vision

Musk's projections represent a significant departure from mainstream industry timelines for full vehicle autonomy. Whilst Tesla's driverless deployment in Texas marks a notable milestone, the broader rollout across the United States before the close of 2026 remains an aggressive target that many in the automotive sector will view with scepticism.