SpaceX IPO is just the beginning, TD Securities claims

SpaceX may have soared in its stock market debut, but TD Securities shared the company’s most significant milestones for investors are still to come.

Peter Haynes, head of index and market structure at TD Securities, said attention should now shift from the IPO itself to a series of upcoming index events that could drive fresh demand for the stock.

Speaking on CNBC’s ETF Edge ahead of Friday’s listing, Haynes pointed to planned adjustments by major benchmarks, including the Nasdaq 100, Russell indexes, MSCI global indexes and the S&P Total Market Index.

“Day 15 [after SpaceX goes public], which should be July 6, will be the day that Nasdaq rebalances the 100 Index to reflect SpaceX’s IPO shares,” Haynes said. “Then from there, we’re looking at when do indexes adjust for the additional shares that will be freely tradable down the road.”

The comments came after SpaceX made its long-awaited debut on the Nasdaq, where shares surged more than 19% on their first day of trading. The stock closed at $160.95, valuing the Elon Musk-led rocket and satellite company at more than $2 trillion.

Haynes suggested the IPO marks only the first phase of a broader process that will see passive funds and exchange-traded funds adjust their holdings as SpaceX is incorporated into major market benchmarks.

The focus on future index changes intensified after the S&P 500 Index Committee decided not to fast-track SpaceX into the benchmark. Instead, the company must trade publicly for at least a year before becoming eligible for inclusion.

Haynes described the decision as “controversial,” saying it places greater importance on the schedules of other index providers.

“That leaves us with the other benchmarks and their rebalancing schedule,” he said.

According to Haynes, future adjustments could become increasingly important as more SpaceX shares enter the public market and are reflected in benchmark weightings, potentially triggering additional buying from funds that track those indexes.

Following the company’s market debut, Haynes also praised the trading infrastructure that handled one of the year’s most anticipated IPOs.

“We take for granted that the infrastructure that supports the equity trading business always works,” he wrote in a note to CNBC after trading ended. “Today was a test of that infrastructure and in my opinion the industry passed the test.”

While SpaceX’s first day as a public company delivered a strong start, TD Securities argues that the stock’s inclusion in major indexes could become the next key chapter in its market story.