Elon Musk predicts China will dominate global AI computing power

Elon Musk has once again made a bold prediction about China’s role in the global artificial intelligence (AI) race, claiming that the country might surpass all others in the computing power required to run advanced AI systems.

Speaking on the Moonshots with Peter Diamandis podcast, the xAI CEO noted that China is likely to dominate AI compute in the coming years. 

“China’s going to have more power than anyone else and probably will have more chips. Based on current trends, China will far exceed the rest of the world in AI compute,” Musk said.

According to Musk, China’s biggest advantage is not just access to technology, but its ability to rapidly expand electricity generation. 

He argued that power supply, rather than chips or software, is becoming the main bottleneck for scaling AI. 

Musk estimated that by 2026, China could be producing nearly three times as much electricity as the United States, allowing it to support massive, energy-intensive data centres.

“People are underestimating how difficult it is to bring large amounts of electricity online,” he added, warning that energy constraints could slow AI growth in other regions.

Musk also suggested that US restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports to China may have a limited long-term impact. 

In his view, China will eventually develop its own alternatives, especially as gains from cutting-edge chip performance begin to level off.