Tesla Q1 deliveries set to fall as demand weakens

Tesla is expected to report a sequential drop in first-quarter vehicle deliveries, reflecting softer demand and rising competition across key global markets.

The electric-vehicle maker, led by Elon Musk, is projected to deliver around 368,900 vehicles in the January–March period, according to analysts polled by Visible Alpha.

That would mark an 11.8% decline from the previous quarter, though still representing a 9.6% increase compared to the same period last year.

A separate average of 23 analyst estimates compiled by Tesla points to deliveries of approximately 365,645 units, underscoring expectations of a modest slowdown after a stronger end to 2025.

The anticipated dip comes as Tesla faces intensifying competition in major markets such as Europe and China, where both legacy automakers and newer EV entrants are expanding their offerings. 

In the United States, demand has also been pressured by the expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit for EV purchases in September, which had previously supported sales.

While Wall Street forecasts still point to overall growth for the year, sentiment around Tesla has shifted in recent months, with some analysts now warning of a potential decline in annual deliveries.

Visible Alpha data suggests Tesla could deliver around 1.7 million vehicles in 2026, rising to about 1.84 million units in 2027.

Amid these challenges, Tesla is increasingly diversifying beyond its core EV business, investing in areas such as solar energy, humanoid robotics, and autonomous robotaxi technology as it looks to drive future growth.