2026 Oscars race heats up with lead acting frontrunners: Who would make the cut?

The 98th Academy Awards are scheduled to take place on March 16, 2026, but the competition among various major categories is already heating up.

Though the big picture regarding Oscar nominations typically begins to take shape around January at the most, with the Golden Globes officially kicking off the awards season each year, predictions about acting, production, and writing categories are the earliest to pour in.

This year is proving to be no different — with multiple stars and titles already being weighed in for the 2026 nominations, it’s time we dissect the five most prominent favourites out of the lead acting categories.

Exactly how many would make the final cut, shall remain to be seen until next year.

Actor in a leading role

Leonardo DiCaprio for ‘One Battle After Another’

Dicaprio is one of the firmly cemented frontrunners for the race to the next Oscars’ leading actor category and at this point, the only thing which could come as a surprise about his potential nomination is the lack of one.

Timothee Chalamet for ‘Marty Supreme’

Often considered his generation’s Leonardo DiCaprio, Chalamet is further being touted for scoring a third best actor nomination next year for starring in the Josh Safdie-directed sports drama, after previous nods for Call Me by Your Name and A Complete Unknown.

George Clooney for ‘Jay Kelly’

Clooney is another acting heavyweight leading the predictions for 2026 Oscars best actor nominations for his turn in Noah Baumbach’s newly released dramedy, Jay Kelly, also starring Adam Sandler.

Ethan Hawke for ‘Blue Moon’

Hawke, whose potential nomination has been listed by IndieWire among the “Long Shots”, has made multiple hypothetical lists for actors in a leading role. The actor’s performance as American lyricist Lorenz Hart, in his frequent collaborator Richard Linklater’s biographical film Blue Moon, has garnered considerable critical acclaim.

Wagner Moura for ‘The Secret Agent’

Something of a wild card among the Hollywood A-listers, Brazilian star Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent could prove to be a breath of fresh air as the only foreign language performance among the current hopefuls.

Actress in a leading role

Jessie Buckley for ‘Hamnet’

Buckley is increasingly appearing to be the first name on the various lists for best actress predictions, with the Irish actress being chosen to secure her second nomination after a supporting nod for 2021’s The Lost Daughter — this time, for playing William Shakespeare’s wife, Agnes Shakespeare, in a fictional take on the famous playwright’s life directed by Chloe Zhao.

Cynthia Erivo for ‘Wicked: For Good’

Erivo is also a frontrunner for her performance as Elphaba a second time after scoring a best actress nomination at the last Academy Awards for 2024’s Wicked. If she ends up being nominated again next year, the British performer would join a distinguished list of actors to have scored multiple Oscar nods for appearing in the same role.

Emma Stone for ‘Bugonia’

This year’s best actress winner Emma Stone is on par for becoming a title defender for her performance in yet another Yorgos Lanthimos film, the sci-fi comedy, Bugonia.

Chase Infiniti for ‘One Battle After Another’

For her breakthrough performance, newcomer Chase Infiniti could join her onscreen dad, Leonardo DiCaprio, as an Oscar nominee for her debut performance in One Battle After Another.

Renate Reinsve for ‘Sentimental Value’

While Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve had her mainstream breakthrough with Joachim Trier’s The Worst Person in the World, she could score her premiere Oscar nomination for another performance in a film directed by the same filmmaker, someone she frequently collaborates with, with this year’s Sentimental Value.